Clearly a lot of people on LW want to take it ASAP. I strongly don't want that - to the point where I will most likely emigrate if it becomes obligatory in my country. Please help me understand what I'm missing. Here is my understanding:
- As a young, healthy person, SARS-Cov-2 poses extremely low risk to me:
- There is no significant risk of lasting negative health consequences after infection
- There is no strong proof for such effect. Such proof would greatly increase acceptance of governments' policies, so there is a strong incentive to publish any such proof. There has also been enough time and cases to identify a pattern of negative consequences lasting 6+ months. Therefore I'm treating absence of a proof despite strong incentives and opportunity as a strong proof of absence.
- A pessimistic infection fatality rate is probably around 0.01%
- Case fatality rate for young people is below 0.5%
- Halve that, since half of the infections do not result in the disease.
- Divide that by 25 and stockpile large quantities of vitamin D in case you get the disease (https://chrismasterjohnphd.com/covid-19/finally-confirmed-vitamin-d-nearly-abolishes-icu-risk-in-covid-19)
- Reinfection is extremely rare, if at all possible.
- Again, there is a strong incentive to make people fear a reinfection.
- Yet all we hear is rare individual reports that might be test failures or long-lasting lingering infections.
- The risk of infection is getting smaller and smaller, as more people in the population become immune - either by infection or by vaccination
- Conversely, there is a non-negligible risk associated with a vaccine that has been developed so quickly.
- The trials have lasted only months, so we don't know whether there are some side-effects that surface only after some significant time
- The trials have only been conducted on tens of thousands of subjects so far, so very severe but rare negative consequences might have gone under the radar
- Pfizer's vaccine requires extremely low temperatures, so there is a danger that in some locations it will be transported or stored incorrectly, causing greater risk than that suggested by the trials so far
- Both the governments and the vaccine manufacturers have twisted incentives, meaning there is a serious danger of too optimistic reports of the vaccines' efficacy and safety
I can only think of two reasons why young, knowledgeable people are so excited about taking the vaccine:
- they have contact with someone at risk that they deeply care about, and want to minimise the chance of infecting them, even at the cost of personal safety;
- they value safety of strangers higher than their own safety, and want to take the vaccine for the sake of all the people at risk in the society.